COP31 opens in Turkey as US stays home amid Hormuz crisis

World leaders and climate activists began negotiations in Antalya, Turkey, on Monday for COP31, a summit taking place against a backdrop of unprecedented extreme weather and geopolitical instability. According to The Independent ^[2], the conference arrives after a disastrous year marked by deadly heat waves in Europe and devastating floods in Nepal, all linked to rising global temperatures.

The stakes are particularly high because the goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5C since the early 1800s, established in the 2015 Paris Agreement, is no longer realistic. The Guardian reported ^[1] that delegates from more than 190 countries are gathering, but the United States, the world’s second-largest polluter, will be absent. President Donald Trump withdrew the US from climate negotiations during his first term and again upon taking office for his second term in January 2025.

Adding to the tension is the conflict in Iran, which has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz. The Independent noted ^[2] that this disruption has pushed up global prices for gasoline, oil, fertilizers, and pesticides. The economic shock is forcing governments to rethink energy policies, accelerating investment in renewable sources like wind and solar to reduce dependence on volatile fossil fuel markets.

Turkish Environment Minister Murat Kurum, who serves as the COP31 president, acknowledged the grim reality. “This is the first COP where it is clear beyond a reasonable doubt that the world will overshoot the 1.5-degree target,” Kurum stated. He emphasised that the summit would not lower ambition, focusing instead on an “Action Agenda” to implement previous commitments rather than setting new targets.

A central theme of the agenda is electrification, with a goal to increase the use of electricity from renewable sources from 21% to 35% by 2035. Kurum also highlighted the need to reduce methane emissions and build climate-resilient cities. The negotiations, running from November 9 to 20, will also address financial support for poorer nations to adapt to extreme weather and transition away from fossil fuels.

UN Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell defended the value of the process. “No single COP is a silver bullet that can stop climate change overnight,” Stiell said. “But every recent COP has made essential progress. COP31 in Antalya will, too.”

In a diplomatic twist, the summit is being jointly organised by Turkey and Australia after a dispute over hosting rights. As a compromise, Turkey is the official host while Australia leads the negotiations. Both nations have faced criticism for their continued reliance on coal. The last two summits, COP30 in Brazil and COP29 in Azerbaijan, were criticised for failing to reach strong agreements on emission reductions, with final texts omitting mentions of fuels entirely.