Trump’s Approval at 40% in NBC Poll as GOP Seeks Midterm Hope

NBC News chief data analyst Steve Kornacki told Meet the Press that President Donald Trump is in "worse shape" heading into his second midterms compared to his first ^[1]. According to the latest NBC News poll, Trump’s approval rating sits at 40 percent, with 60 percent of voters disapproving ^[2]. This marks a significant decline from 2018, when his net approval was less negative.

The Independent reported that Kornacki identified one potential glimmer of hope for Republicans despite the president’s low standing ^[2]. While Trump has lost significant support over his handling of the economy, the Republican Party’s overall favorability remains stable. In 2018, nearly 70 percent of voters approved of Trump’s economic management. Currently, only 26 percent express satisfaction, with nearly three quarters dissatisfied.

Kornacki noted that while Democrats may retake the House and Senate, the GOP’s party-level numbers are comparable to 2018 ^[2]. "Republicans are not popular, but their number overall, as a party, their favorable-unfavorable number, is about where it was in 2018," he said. This contrasts sharply with the Democratic Party, which holds a mere 29 percent favorability rating. The analyst questioned whether the Democratic Party’s current baggage might prevent it from capitalizing on voter dissatisfaction with Trump.

The data arrives just one day before Election Day, where voters will choose governors in 36 states and state legislative bodies in nearly every state ^[2]. The 2025–26 election cycle has become one of the most expensive in history. AdImpact, which tracks political spending, reported that a record $11.6 billion had been spent on political advertisements as of October 30. The highest spending is concentrated in battleground US Senate races in Texas, Ohio, and Michigan.

NBC News reported that polling consistently indicates Democrats have a strong chance of ending the Republican Party's unified control of Congress ^[1]. However, the stability of the Republican brand, even as Trump’s personal approval wanes, poses a complex challenge for Democrats ^[2]. Kornacki emphasized that the key question for Tuesday is whether the Democratic Party can overcome its low favorability to convert anti-Trump sentiment into votes. The election results will determine control of both chambers of Congress and shape the political landscape for the remainder of Trump’s term.